The ratio of boys and girls among those born. A lot of boys are born for war - folk omen or scientific fact? In Russia, "both boys and girls are quoted"

Incredible Facts

Worldwide, 107 boys are born for every 100 girls. This bias is partly due to selective abortions based on the sex of the child and "gendercide" (killing of female babies in countries like China and India where men are more desirable). But even if these factors are taken into account, the sex ratio will still fluctuate around 105:100, which means that women, by nature, are more likely to give birth to boys. Why?

Several factors influence which sperm (either X-chromosome or Y-chromosome containing) will first fertilize an egg, including among these factors: parental age, environmental exposure, stress, the stage of the mother's ovulation cycle, and even whether women are still children. All these "forces" combine to eventually establish the average sex ratio is 105:100. But what is the use of this kind of "bias"?

Many demographers believe that gender imbalance is nothing but an evolutionary issue. Male babies are more likely to suffer from health problems than female babies. However, in adulthood, men are more likely to kill each other, take more risks and have more health problems than women. All this together makes them die earlier. This is not an exact balance of the sexes, but still among the general human population, the ratio of men to women is 101:100.

Why is this ratio not perfectly equal? It is the same in the USA, throughout Europe, Australia and many other developed countries (in fact, there are slightly more adult women in these countries). A slight advantage in the male side, which does exist in the analysis of the general situation in the world, is probably the result of the previously mentioned social factors: gender-based abortion and gendercide in Southeast Asia and in most of the Middle East, where, in general, there is a strong cultural preference for men .

No less intriguing in the topic of our gender imbalance is the question of why this very balance should be. Men produce a huge amount of sperm, while women produce a limited number of eggs. As far as evolution is concerned, why can't humanity get by with fewer men and more women?

The internationally accepted answer to the question was given by Ronald Fisher, a well-known evolutionary biologist who worked in the first half of the 20th century. According to Fisher's principle, sex ratio differences will tend to decrease over time due to the reproductive advantage automatically gained by the minority sex.

Suppose that, for example, the number of newborn boys would be much less than the number of newborn girls. If this were true, then newborn boys in the future would have higher prospects for reproduction than newborn girls, and thus the number of offspring would be greater. Parents who are genetically more likely to give birth to boys will have more grandchildren, so their gene responsible for "producing" men will spread more and more. Gradually, the population will achieve gender balance.

Gordienko Ekaterina

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Regional scientific and practical conference of schoolchildren

"Open World"

Direction of research work: Man and society (sociology)

Topic: "Who is born more: boys or girls?"

MOU secondary school No. 5 with. Zhuravsky,

Grade 10.

Scientific adviser: Mikhailova Olga Igorevna,teacher of history and social studies, secondary school No. 5

I Introduction

II. Main part

2.1. More boys?

2.2. The reason for the surge in the birth of boys is a decrease in miscarriages.

2.3. Natural balance or political factor?

2.4. The influence of the season on the sex ratio.

2.5. Demographic situation in the Russian Federation.

III. Conclusion

Bibliographic list

Applications

Introduction.

There is such a sign among the people - if more boys are born in the country than girls, this is a harbinger of war.

The topic of the speech is very relevant today. The number of born boys is greater than girls, and against the backdrop of the conflict that we are seeing in Ukraine, Syria, many skeptics predict more large-scale military operations, referring to the sad experience of many wars, including the Great Patriotic War. And the expression "Many boys are born - for war" sounds on the lips of many peoples. Is it true for war? Why? What do the statistics say? What connection can there be between tiny, helpless babies and a terrible disaster that claims and breaks many lives? If more boys are being born now, then why is it so difficult for girls to find their other half, and we are increasingly meeting unmarried, single women. The relevance of the topic is still determined by the severity of the demographic crisis in modern Russia and its regions. Despite the stabilization of the domestic political situation, the growth of economic indicators and the improvement of the general well-being of Russians, one of the most acute threats to the country remains the problem of natural population decline. The demographic crisis has a negative impact on all spheres of Russian society. The low birth rate and high death rate of the Russian population already today set the limits for the growth of the country's economic development, reduce the level of its competitiveness in the world market, and pose a threat to Russia's national security.

Target: Find out whether there are justifications for the statement "Many boys are born - for war."

Tasks:

Consider options for hypotheses related to the causes of uneven sex ratio.
Find out if there are differences in the causes of infant mortality during the Second World War and in peacetime.
Determine the effectiveness of demographic policy at different stages.
Find out why the sex ratio changes with age.

More boys?

Numerous demographic statistics show that during and after long wars, the birth rate of boys increases markedly. During the First World War, 1-2.5% more boys were born in the belligerent European countries than in the "peaceful" years. The maximum increase was observed in Germany, where the sex ratio of newborns increased to 108.5. The same phenomenon was observed during the Second World War. In England and France, for example, by 1943 this ratio increased by 1.5-2% compared to the "peaceful" years.

To explain this phenomenon, called the "phenomenon of the war years", many hypotheses were put forward. Some authors believe that during the war, younger people marry, and with a decrease in the average age of parents, an increase in the proportion of boys in offspring is associated. Others attribute this to an increase in the number of primiparas, who are also more likely to give birth to boys. Still others explain the change in the birth rate of the sexes by the rest of mothers from pregnancy, the large interval between births. Fourth, finally, reduce the cause to changes in nutrition - a decrease in the consumption of meat and other proteins.

None of these hypotheses has gathered sufficient evidence. "The phenomenon of the war years" is still a mystery, sometimes giving food for mystical explanations.

It turns out that scientists talk about a greater number of newborn boys not before, but during and after wars. Such studies have been carried out for a long time and repeatedly, but before the First World War of 1914-1918, there were too few statistical data, and they were too inaccurate for clear and unambiguous conclusions. The English demographer James analyzed the wars. But neither during the Russian-Swedish war (1789-1790), nor during the wars with Napoleon, nor in the Franco-Prussian war, etc. no significant fluctuations were found. In fact, almost the only conflicts with clearly identified fluctuations were World Wars I and II, where there was a significant increase in the birth rate of boys, and the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, where there was a decrease in the birth rate of boys - in fact, more girls were born than boys.

In 1946, the work of S.A. Novoselsky "The influence of war on the sex composition of newborns".The author took for research data on the birth rate in England, France, Germany and individual cities of Russia in the period from 1908 to 1925. That is, several years before the First World War of 1914, the years of its course, and several years after.

According to his statistical data, it is clearly seen that in the last years of the war and after it, there was a surge in the birth of boys - 106-108 boys per 100 girls born, with a ratio of 103-105 boys per 100 girls born in peacetime. However, in the years preceding the war, no more boys were born than in normal peacetime.

The reason for the surge in the birth of boys is a decrease in miscarriages.

The reason for the increase in the number of born boys, the author suggests a decrease in intrauterine mortality. The absence of men who have gone to war leads to a decrease in the number of conceptions. The woman's body rests, the necessary supply of trace elements and vitamins is restored, which leads to an easier subsequent pregnancy and a decrease in the likelihood of miscarriage.

According to S.A. Novoselsky, the sex ratio at conception is 125-130 boys per 100 girls. Many male fetuses die in 1-3 months after conception, and in the following months, the mortality rate of male fetuses is 160-170 per 100 female ones. Thus, a female body that is rested and prepared for conception has a greater likelihood of a successful course and resolution of pregnancy, which allows more boys to be born safely. There is also a factor of a large number of marriages and the appearance of children in young, nulliparous women, in whom the likelihood of miscarriages and intrauterine death of infants is much lower compared to multiparous women.

Natural balance or political factor?

Scientists have proved (in particular, in the course of a study of Moscow biologists as part of the "Animals in the City" program, under the guidance of Andrei Dmitrievich Poyarkov, Ph. that if dogs or other animals are shot in any territory, this leads to an increase in their birth rate. Perhaps the increase in the number of born boys is also a kind of response of nature to their destruction - after all, during wars, the male population dies many times more than the female population. Men fight and die. This means that more men should be born. To keep balance.

In times of famine, more girls are born than boys.Shige Song, a sociologist and demographer from the City University of New York, made this conclusion during a large-scale study of the dynamics of the sex ratio in China in the 20th century. In his study, the scientist was based on data obtained during a nationwide survey in 1982, which was attended by more than three hundred thousand Chinese women who gave birth to offspring between September 1929 and July 1982. This period included the famine of 1959-1961, the so-called "Great Leap Forward Famine", considered one of the largest social catastrophes of the 20th century. Then in China, according to various estimates, from 20 to 40 million people died.

Shige Sun found that between April 1960, a year after the start of the famine, and October 1963, that is, almost two years after it ended, significantly fewer boys than girls were born. If at the beginning of this period the ratio was 109 boys for every 100 girls, then at the end it was 99 boys for every 100 girls, which is a very significant change from a demographic point of view. Sex ratio indicators returned to their previous values only by July 1965. A similar situation was observed during the Great Patriotic War. After earthquakes or natural disasters, the number of births of boys also temporarily increases. Cause it looks like again is stress . Earthquakes in Chile in 2005. It turned out that the residents of the region, who were then in the second and third months of pregnancy, gave birth to 5.8 percent more girls than usual. The authors of the study suggested that in this way a natural mechanism is manifested, aimed at the survival of the population in the conditions of large-scale disasters.

The data obtained confirm the hypothesis about the dependence of the sex of the offspring on environmental conditions.

According to this theory, for the survival of the population in conditions of famine, women must produce more girls, since the latter are more vulnerable and malnutrition has a significantly negative impact on their health and survival than on the health and survival of females. Subsequently, fewer offspring will be obtained from the male part of the population than from the female.

In addition, the weight of the mother before conception obviously has a decisive influence on the sex of the baby.This is written by the Italian researcher Angelo Gagnacci, a doctor in one of the clinics of Modena. According to him, women weighing less than 54 kilograms are noticeably more likely to give birth to boys than the rest: 100 boys are born for 98 girls. Women who believe they will live to a ripe old age are more likely to have sons than daughters, a new study of British women has found.

How exactly the female body regulates the sex of the unborn child is still unknown. One of the hypotheses is that women in a prosperous environment have an increased level of testosterone, which contributes to the survival of the male fetus in the womb.

Sarah Jones of the University of Kent wondered if the ratio of boys to girls had anything to do with psychological factors, such as a woman's assessment of her life expectancy. Previous studies have shown that people can estimate it quite accurately, perhaps because it depends on their physical fitness and the quality of the environment, as well as the life expectancy of their parents and grandparents. Jones interviewed over 600 women in Gloucestershire who had given birth to their first child in the past four years. The women were asked about the age of their first child and when they might die.

It turned out that women who predicted for themselves many more years of life were more often already mothers of boys.The ratio of boys and girls in the group of women who believed that they still had to live more than 60 years was 108:100, while for women who left themselves less than 48 years, it was 78:100.

The researcher suspects that a woman's well-being and a sense of comfort in the environment contributes to the fact that the child turns out to be a boy. Women of the post-war period predicted a long happy life for themselves and, as proof of the theory of Sarah Jones, an increase in the number of born boys.

Since ancient times, there has been a belief that an increase in the number of born boys promises imminent wars. Scientists are skeptical about this sign, but the fact that during the great wars and the first years after them, much more boys are born is generally recognized and is called the "phenomenon of the war years."

So, most likely the main reasons that more boys were born in the war and post-war times, and not girls, are as follows:

The so-called natural balance (scientists have found that the male sex begins to significantly predominate in the population in the event of a decrease in its population), a decrease in miscarriages, a mother’s rest from the birth of children, mother’s weight, stress, victory in hostilities and, as a factor, hope for a long and happy life. This problem of sex ratio is of interest to many scientists, and today several more interesting points have been identified that can affect the sex of the unborn child.

With the current level of development of technology and science, nodding at nature is not always correct. For example, in China, 116 or even 123 boys are born per hundred girls. This figure is much higher than both the global ratio and post-war surges. The reason for such a big difference is the demographic policy pursued in China - "one family - one child", the desire of most families to have a son - heir and breadwinner in old age, as well as such a level of development of medicine when the sex of a child can be determined long before he is born. . Unwanted girls are getting rid of, the gap between the numbers of boys and girls born is growing, and even nature, defeated by modern equipment, is unable to reduce it.Selective killing of girls.

"The phenomena described by The Telegraph have existed for a long time," says Igor Beloborodov, director of the Institute for Demographic Research.

In China, 100 girls are born for every 120 boys, in India the ratio is 112 to 100. This is largely the result of selective abortions: unwanted girls are "weeded out" after ultrasound examinations (ultrasound), Beloborodov explains. "The preference given to boys under the conditions of one-child policy in China is a feature of patriarchal cultures," explains Igor Beloborodov. As a result, "40 million men of working age in China no longer have wives, and this is a huge number," the demographer emphasizes.

In India, he said, over the past 20 years, 20 million abortions of girls have been committed. The phenomenon of gendercide appeared, by analogy with genocide - killing on the basis of sex. In some parts of India, there is even an "infanticide - the murder of newborn girls. The study showed that the phenomenon of the so-called" disappeared girls ", as they are destroyed in the womb of their mothers because of their gender, is very acute among the second children in Indian families in which the first child girl.In the first pregnancy there is not yet a clear preference for a boy, but in subsequent pregnancies this trend is clearly manifested.When it is found that a girl is to be born again in the family, the temptation to resort to abortion is very strong.According to the latest census of India (2011), in the country at There are only 314 girls for every 1,000 boys aged 0-6, the lowest ratio recorded since the country gained independence in 1947. As a result, polygamy appears in India in the form of polyandry, when a woman lives with her husband and at the same time cohabits with his single brothers, says the expert.Another option is when young girls for marriage We are simply kidnapped. To curb this phenomenon, it is not enough to say "no" to selective abortion, or "no" to infanticide. “It is necessary to put this problem in accordance with the rights, and namely, the rights of girls and women in order to change the attitude towards them, which is deeply rooted in the culture of this region of the world. "The dropout of girls as a phenomenon is somehow moving to Europe," many doctors say. In Europe, the question is seriously debated whether to ban sex determination on ultrasound. There are frequent cases when the sex of the child is not the one that is needed. But there are errors in determining the sex on ultrasound.

Even the time of year affects the sex ratio.

Gagnacci's research shows that as a result of autumn conception, boys are born more often, and the chances of having a girl increase with conception from March to May. Why the sex ratio varies seasonally is not clear. Perhaps the matter is in the nutrition of a particular season.

Male embryos have an advantage at the stage of entering the uterus. "The cells of male embryos divide faster, they have faster metabolic processes," Gagnacci writes.. However, with rapid cell division, the likelihood of failure increases. The effect of poisons and other harmful substances is aggravated. Thus, during pregnancy and immediately after birth, the likelihood of deviations in the development of boys is higher.

Scholars are also debating whetherchemical pollution of the environmenton the ratio between the births of boys and girls. American researcher D. Davis from the University of Pittsburgh is convinced of this.

For example, an accident at a chemical plant in Cefeso (Italy) significantly affected the sex ratio of newborns. During the accident, the poison dioxin got into the environment. "In general, in the seven years after the disaster, almost twice as many girls were born as boys in most of the affected regions," says Davis. Only gradually the ratio leveled off and returned to its normal value. American scientists examining various areas found that in the least polluted areas, 48.3% of newborns were girls, and in the most polluted 50.3%. The scientists announced their discovery at a meeting of the American Society for Reproductive Medicine, held October 17 in Montreal. Such discoveries have led some scientists to believe that spermatozoa are carriers of Y chromosomes , leading to the birth of boys, are weaker than spermatozoa carriers of the X chromosome, and therefore moreexposed to environmental stress.

Some substances affect spermatozoa and prevent the development of the embryo in the mother's womb. This is especially true for spermatozoa containing the male Y-chromosome. Nicotine also belongs to harmful substances. Japanese and Danish scientists have found that smoking before conception and during pregnancy greatly reduces the likelihood of having boys.

Many believe that in wealthy Western countries, a woman's health and living conditions affect the sex of her children - a link that has previously been proven only in developing countries. It has long been known that in developing countries, women who eat worse give birth to more girls than boys. One explanation for this fact is that evolutionary adaptation in this way provides humans with the greatest number of grandchildren.

The point is that if parents can raise a strong and healthy, attractive son, he will provide them with a large number of grandchildren from many women. However, the "expenses" for boys are greater both during gestation in the uterus and later, in the process of education. Therefore, if parents have few resources, it is easier for them not to take risks and have daughters who will provide at least a certain number of grandchildren.

The small island of Jinoji in Japan is called the "Island of Boys". For many years, 3.5 times more boys than girls have been born here. Japanese scientists see the reason for this in drinking water - it has a lot of alkaline substances.

The problem of the sex of the child has intrigued our society for more than one hundred years. At present, there is extensive material on the sex ratio in humans at birth. This material is quite contradictory, contains a large number of inexplicable mysteries and facts. In some works, attempts are made to find a relationship between the sex of the born child and the profession of the parents, their physique and even temperament. There is a "seasonal" conception hypothesis, a "food" hypothesis, a "blood renewal" hypothesis, and a "Chinese calendar". Some researchers are trying to relate this to ecology and economic conditions, or deriving mathematical formulas that they believe can determine the sex of a child.

According to statistics, it is also known that:

Boys are more likely to be born at first births
The younger the parents, the more likely they are to conceive a boy (and vice versa)
If pregnancy occurs soon after an abortion, girls are more likely to be born
Weather children are usually of the same sex

If the interval between births is more than 3 years, children of the opposite sex are born. Attempts to explain this phenomenon have not led to any definite result. None of the hypotheses has sufficient evidence. Most likely, a complex complex of genetic, mental and social factors is at work here. Nature has hidden the key to the discovery of this secret far away. And probably not in vain. It is not difficult to imagine that attempts to interfere with the natural self-regulating mechanism of sex ratio will not lead to anything good.

Demographic situation in the Russian Federation.

Is Russia facing a sharp imbalance of newborn boys and girls, and in the long term - a shortage of women? China and India have long faced this phenomenon. And now a clear preponderance of boys is observed in Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Serbia and Bosnia. Experts believe that the increase in the number of bachelors is a serious problem, but in Russia another problem is much more serious - having few children. It is worth worrying about the huge gap between male and female mortality and early orphanhood of children. Men in Russia die earlier.All-Russian population census recorded the fact: there are 10.5 million more women. Men spend more energy efforts to survive, and they have a lot of risky behavior (alcoholism, drug addiction, traffic accidents, various kinds of injuries). For Russia, unlike many states, "preference for children by gender" is not typical yet. In Russia, in the conditions of general small families - orientation of the family to the birth of one baby, the sex of the child often does not matter much. With all the gender changes, there is an even more worrisome trend - a reluctance to have children at all, says Igor Beloborodov, director of the Institute for Demographic Research."Massive childlessness is observed in different parts of the world: in Germany, Shanghai, Hong Kong." In Europe, for example, 20 percent of young women are childless. Some of them are staunch opponents of childbearing, some are just typical representatives of the "consumer society who are carried away by a career," and some are gay, the demographer says. I think that it is necessary to work with the reproductive stereotypes of young people - with ideas about the family and the number of children in it. The state calls for having two or more children of those people who grew up in conditions of small families. They have already embraced that motivation. A person already in adolescence has ideas about what a family should be like. "It is difficult to change reproductive stereotypes if it was the result of long historical changes, but it is possible. Material and financial assistance, campaigning, creating a friendly attitude towards large families in society - all this set of measures can increase the birth rate.

CurrentlyThe directions of demographic policy in the Russian Federation are as follows:

Benefits for pregnancy and childbirth.
A one-time allowance for women registered with medical institutions in the early stages of pregnancy.
One-time allowance at the birth of a child.
Monthly allowance for the period of parental leave until the child reaches the age of 1.5 years.
Issuance of maternity capital at the birth of a second child.

The demographic policy in our country has yielded positive results. 2013 turned out to be a happy year for the national demographics. For the first time in many years, natural growth has been recorded in Russia. We had 23,000 more compatriots born than died. The locomotive of positive changes was a significant increase in the birth rate: from 1,214,000 people in 1999 to 1,901,000 last year.

However, skeptics are in no hurry to rejoice. There are many versions in the information field that exclude qualitative changes for the better. A number of researchers explain what is happening with a temporary increase in the so-called"demographic wave".Others claim thatthe entire increase is entirely provided by migrants, and it is necessary to speak "not about growth, but about the replacement of one population by another." Finally, there is an opinion that the increase in the birth rate affected only regions “where the proportion of the population with the Muslim and Buddhist religions is high”, andThe Russian people are still in the deepest demographic depression.The “population wave” is already in the ebb phase, and the birth rate is growing. The simplest statistical analysis shows that in modern Russia there are 3.1 million (or 9.3%) fewer women of childbearing age than at the turn of the century. That is, the birth rate, compared with 1999-2000, should be reduced, but it is growing. Although there are fewer potential mothers, there are more and more children for each of them. Maybe the newcomers with their tradition of having many children provided a qualitative change? But immigrants come to work, not to give birth to children, although they contribute to the overall treasury of the Russian birth rate, they cannot qualitatively change its indicators.

Conclusion.

According to data provided by the Federal State Statistics Service at the beginning of 2015, in Russia there are 3,515 girls of the same age for 3,708 boys under the age of four. Simple mathematical operations allow you to identify the sex ratio. There are 105 boys for every 100 girls. This is a quite normal peacetime sex ratio, corresponding to the rates in most countries (105-107 boys per 100 girls).

Thus, the sign “Many boys are born - for war” has nothing to do with reality. The difference in the number of newborn boys and girls can be influenced by the demographic, and not only the demographic policy of the state, natural factors, the ongoing or already ended war, and even, according to the results of a number of studies, environmental pollution by some harmful substances. Even in peacetime, boys are born a little more than girls. Sometimes the difference is greater, sometimes less. But it is not worth predicting future wars in this way - this is not true.

Bibliographic list

APPENDIX

The impact of war on the sex composition of those born

S.A. Novoselsky

Published according to the publication: S.A. Novoselsky. Questions of demographic and sanitary statistics (Selected works) / ed. A.M. Merkova Moscow, "Medgiz", 1958 p. 191-199.

The so-called sex ratio of births, i.e. the number of boys born per 100 girls born changed in Germany over the years indicated as follows:

Boys born per 100 girls born in Germany

Year	live births	Live births and still births
1908	105,4	106,1
1909	105,3	105,9
1910	105,3	105,9
1915	105,5	106,0
1916	106,5	107,1
1917	106,9	107,3
1918	107,3	107,7
1919		108,5
1920	107,2	107,7
1921	107,3	107,8
1922		107,5
1923	106,8	107,3

The following table compares numbers for France.

Data for 1915-1919 belong to 77 departments not occupied by the enemy. Data for 1920-1923 refer to all of France, including Alsace-Lorraine.

Boys born per 100 girls born in France

Year	live births	Live births and still births
1908	104,8	106,3
1909	104,4	105,6
1910	104,5	105,5
1915	104,6	105,6
1916	104,9	106,0
1917	164,7	105,9
1918	106,5	107,6
1919	105,9	107,3
1920	106,2	107,2
1921	104,9	106,0
1922	104,9	106,0
1923	105,3	106,3

The following table compares numbers for England and Wales. The numbers refer only to live births, since compulsory registration of stillbirths was introduced in England only from 1927.

Number of births in England and Wales (live births)

Year
1908	103,6
1909	104,1
1910	104,0
1915	104,0
1916	104,9
1917	104,4
1918	104,8
1919	106,0
1920	105,2
1921	105,1
1922	104,9
1923	104,4

In all three countries there is a clear increase in the relative numbers of boys born (the so-called increase in the sex ratio) in the last year of the war and especially in the first post-war years.

For Russia during the war years there is no complete data on the sex composition of those born. Below are the data for Moscow and Petrograd-Leningrad, and the data refer only to live births, since the number of stillbirths for 1917-1922 is extremely incomplete.

Number of births in Moscow (live births)

Year	Boys born per 100 girls
1911	105,1	104,7
1912	104,1
1913	103,8
1914	105,9
1915	104,2
1916	105,6
1917	106,6	106,9
1918	106,6
1919	107,8
1920	104,8	107,4
1921	105,9
1922	107,6 1912		103,2
1913	104,7
1914	103,5
1915	104,8
1916	105,0
1917	107,3	106,3
1918	105,0
1919	105,7
1920 Primiparous	26,4
Secondary	19,1	20,7
Other	54,5	30,3
TOTAL

For the Second World War, it would be premature to draw any conclusions, especially since there is still almost no data on the sex composition of those born in the warring countries. Nevertheless, it is of some peculiar interest to compare the available data for Leningrad during the blockade period and in the post-blockade period.

2384

1935

2400

2659

1936

2275

2489

1937

3399

3604

1938

2693

2774

1939

2498

2703

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Regional scientific-practical conference "open world" INDIVIDUAL AND SOCIETY (sociology) Who is born more: boys or girls? Author of the work: Ekaterina Gordienko MOU secondary school No. 5 s. Zhuravskogo, 10th grade. Supervisor: Mikhailova Olga Igorevna, teacher of history and social studies, secondary school No. 5

There is such a sign among the people - if more boys are born in the country than girls, this is a harbinger of war Purpose: To find out if there are justifications for the statement "Many boys are born - to war." Objectives: To consider options for hypotheses related to the causes of uneven sex ratio. Determine the effectiveness of demographic policy at different stages. Find out why the sex ratio changes with age.

The effect of war on the sex composition of those born S.A. Novoselsky Published according to the publication: S.A. Novoselsky. Questions of demographic and sanitary statistics (Selected works) / ed. A.M. Merkova Moscow, "Medgiz", 1958 p. 191-199. Year Live births Live births and still births 1908 105.4 106.1 1909 105.3 105.9 1910 105.3 105.9 1915 105.5 106.0 1916 106.5 107.1 1917 106.9 107.3 1918 107, 3 107.7 1919 108 108.5 1920 107.2 107.7 1921 107.3 107.8 1922 107 107.5 1923 106.8 107.3 Boys born per 100 girls born in Germany Boys born per 100 girls born France Year Live births Live births and stillbirths 1908 104.8 106.3 1909 104.4 105.6 1910 104.5 105.5 1915 104.6 105.6 1916 104.9 106.0 1917 164.7 105.9 1918 106.5 107.6 1919 105.9 107.3 1920 106.2 107.2 1921 104.9 106.0 1922 104.9 106.0 1923 105.3 106.3

Year Boys born per 100 girls 1908 103.6 1909 104.1 1910 104.0 1915 104.0 1916 104.9 1917 104.4 1918 104.8 1919 106.0 1920 105.2 1921 105.1 1922 1923 104.4 Number of births in England and Wales (live births) Year Boys born per 100 girls 106.9 1918 106.6 1919 107.8 1920 104.8 107.4 1921 105.9 1922 107.6 1923 107.3 1924 107.4 1925 105.4 boys 1911 105.9 104.5 1912 103.2 1913 104.7 1914 103.5 1915 104.8 1916 105.0 1917 107.3 106.3 1918 105.0 1919 105.7 1920 108.1 108.2 1921 108.8 1922 107.7 1923 106.4 106.1 1924 104.8 1925 106.1 Number of births in St. Petersburg - Petrograd - Leningrad Year live births Live births and still births 1940 104.4 105.0 1941 105.8 106.1 1942 101.3 102.0 1943 105.4 105.4 1944 107.4 107.7 1945 109.1 109.6 Boys born per 100 girls born in Leningrad

The reason for the surge in the birth of boys is a decrease in miscarriages. The absence of men who have gone to war leads to a decrease in the number of conceptions. The woman's body rests, the necessary supply of trace elements and vitamins is restored, which leads to an easier subsequent pregnancy and a decrease in the likelihood of miscarriage. Many male fetuses die in 1-3 months after conception, and in the following months, the mortality rate of male fetuses is 160-170 per 100 female ones. A large number of marriages and the appearance of children in young, nulliparous women, in whom the likelihood of miscarriages and intrauterine death of infants is much lower compared to multiparous women.

Natural balance or political factor?

Even the season affects the sex ratio Boys Girls

According to statistics, it is also known that: First births are more likely to be boys The younger the parents, the more likely they are to conceive a boy

What do we have? The directions of demographic policy in the Russian Federation are as follows: Benefits for pregnancy and childbirth. A one-time allowance for women registered with medical institutions in the early stages of pregnancy. One-time allowance at the birth of a child. Monthly allowance for the period of parental leave until the child reaches the age of 1.5 years. Issuance of maternity capital at the birth of a second child.

Thus, the sign “Many boys are born - for war” has nothing to do with reality. IT IS NOT TRUE!

Thanks for attention!

In general, I can not stop thinking about this topic - it climbs into my head.

Very few girls are born among friends, All I hear is that this one has a boy, that one has a boy too ... Involuntarily I remembered the sign that boys are ready for war. And I, like that stupid Elsa, before giving birth, already wondering what the baby is expecting. Scary...

Got into the Internet.

Many boys are born for war - a folk omen or a scientific fact?
There is such a sign among the people - if more boys are born in the country than girls, this is a harbinger of war. When I myself became the mother of a wonderful boy, and the families of my acquaintances and friends were replenished with boys, this question began to bother me. Is it true for war? Why? What do the statistics say? What connection can there be between tiny, helpless babies and a terrible disaster that claims and breaks many lives?
It turned out that this topic worries not only me. The same question was asked by medical scientists, and even serious studies were carried out on the effect of wars on the sex ratio of born children. What do their results say?
More boys?
It turns out that scientists talk about a greater number of newborn boys not before, but during and after wars. Such studies have been carried out for a long time and repeatedly, but before the First World War of 1914-1918, there were too few statistical data, and they were too inaccurate for clear and unambiguous conclusions. In 1946, in the collection of works of the Department of Health Organization of the Leningrad Pediatric Institute "Issues of the protection of motherhood and childhood", the work of S. A. Novoselsky "The influence of war on the sex composition of those born" was published. The author took for research data on the birth rate in England, France, Germany and individual cities of Russia in the period from 1908 to 1925. That is, several years before the First World War of 1914, the years of its course and several years after.
According to the statistics given, it is clearly seen that in the last years of the war and after it, there was a surge in the birth of boys - 106-108 boys per 100 girls born, while the ratio of 103-105 boys per 100 girls born in peacetime. However, in the years preceding the war, no more boys were born than in normal peacetime.

I hope that the figures will be of interest not only to me.

For 2013, 2014 Born (waiting)

Poll completed.

in 2013 you had a boy

33 (20%)

In 2013 you had a girl

33 (20%)

in 2013 You have twins (triplets), have a boy

0 (0%)

in 2013 You have twins (triplets) all girls

0 (0%)

Are you expecting in 2014 (born) Boy

57 (35%)

You are waiting in 2014 (born) Girl

40 (24%)

Are you expecting in 2014 (born) Twins (twins) Boys

1 (1%)

Are you expecting in 2014 (born) Twins (twins) Girls

0 (0%)

Many are interested in how many people are in Russia - children, men and women, old people? It should be noted right away that the population of the largest territory in the world did not increase, but the statistics for 2019/2020 (updated) of the Russians are encouraging.

According to constantly updated UN statistics, as of January 1, 2020, 22,264,003 children under 15 years old lived in Russia (this is 15.2% of the total population of the Russian Federation), of which 11,428,073 were boys, and 10,835,930 were girls. 105,215,370 Russians over 14 and under 65 (71.8%) and 9,090,760 Russians over 64.

The total population of Russia as of January 1, 2020 was estimated by the UN at 146,570,133 people, and increased over the year despite the excess of deaths over births due to other factors by 60,069 people (by 0.04% from 146,510,064 people a year earlier).

For comparison, as of August 5, 2019, at 18:35, 146,545,732 people lived in Russia (it can be compared to April 15, there were 146,527,317 people), of which in August 78,669,601 were women and 67,876,132 people (compare with April: 78,659,715 women (53.7% of the total population) and 67,867,602 men (46.3%).

By the way, at the beginning of 2019, there were 22,254,879 children under the age of 15 in Russia (boys: 11,423,390; girls: 10,831,489).

There are almost 11 million more women than men in the country, and this disproportion increases dramatically due to old age, where men die much earlier than women.

It can be seen from the April picture that in 2019 the population on this date increased, an increase of 17,253 people (in August, the increase was already 35,668 people), despite a significant excess of mortality (583,222 people) over births (534,849 people).

The data in the picture below for November 2019 allows you to track the dynamics of changes in the population of the Russian Federation within one year. In fact, for almost half a year so far, we see that, according to the UN, on the morning of November 5, 2019, 146,580,826 people lived in Russia. If we take the number of children according to birth statistics in 2019, then the average daily birth rate was 5,109.2 people at that time and the number of children, including 15 years of age, in Russia could be 28 million people, if not for the departure of some of them from life for various tragic reasons.

There are already more recent data on the population of Russia as of February 1, 2020, including the birth of children, which are presented in the picture third from the top.

Many people are interested in how many teenagers are in Russia? Before finding the answer, you need to decide on the range of ages of adolescents. In conventional wisdom, we most likely refer to adolescents as people aged 14-17. But it's not. First, peoples have different cultures and traditions. Therefore, the broadest concept of the UN generally includes ages 10 to 19, dividing them into early adolescence up to and including 14 years of age, and late adolescence from 14 to 19 years of age. In the USSR, at a certain stage, the age of 12-14 years old and the young 15-17 years old were distinguished.

Well, in our case, let's take adolescence as a range from 13 years to 19 years (both ages inclusive - a total of seven years). Based on the average birth rate in 2019-2020 and the minimum tragic departure of young people, we find that there are 13 million teenagers in Russia of both sexes. Here is such a teenage reserve in Russia. It should be noted that the concept of a teenager appeared around the 19th century and was a reaction to the fact that a young person must be prepared for adult life, which became much more complicated after the industrial revolution.

Population growth is due to the migration of people to Russia. Which countries and nationalities are migrants is a separate issue and is not considered in this material. It is convenient to compare the demographic indicators of the Russian Federation with data from 1.5-2 years ago and earlier. Data on children, men and women for 2017 is as follows.

Population and sex ratio in Russia 2013-2017

At the beginning of July 2017, the population of Russia (RF) was estimated at 142,257,519 people of about 200 nationalities, which is more than 200 thousand less than four years earlier (international data with possible confusion about the population of Crimea).

More boys are born in the Russian Federation, there are even more of them than females under 25, but then the sex ratio changes towards the predominance of women. The ratio of men and women in Russia among ages in July 2017 looks like this:
- coefficient of 1.06 under the age of 14 (boys 12,509,563 / girls 11,843,254) - only 17.2 percent of the population (the share of the population has improved when compared to what it was a few years ago);

The sex ratio at the age of 15-24 years is 1.05, in total in this age category 9.46% of the entire population of the Russian Federation, where men - 6,881,880, women - 6,572,191;

- there are already fewer men in the next age category, where the ratio of men and women in Russia in the middle of 2017 becomes 0.96, in total such people of both sexes lived 44.71% of the population of Russia (male 31,220,990 and female - 32 375 489 people);

- note that in the age range up to nine years old, young people aged 15-24 years old live 9.46% percent, and those aged 55-64 years old - 14.44% (the gap is very large in favor of older people). Older men aged 55-64 years - 8,849,707 people, and the gap with the number of women becomes very significant, females at this age lived 11,693,131 people;

- we have to find out how many men are left after 64 years. Few, and very few: 6,352,557 people. At the age of 64 years and above, in 2017 there were more than twice as many women as men - 13,958,757. Accordingly, this is also reflected in the average age, for men it is only 36.6 years, for women it is much higher - 42 .5 years.

The population of Russia also maintained itself then mainly due to migration (a coefficient of 1.7 per 1,000 population), since in 2017 the birth rate per 1,000 inhabitants was 11 babies, and the mortality rate was 13.5.

Despite the fact that 72.4% of people in Russia live in cities, the proportion of residents in them has slightly decreased (by 0.15%), in Moscow there are 12.166 million people (increased by about 1.5 million people in 2- 3 years, St. Petersburg - 4.993 million (increased by the number of the regional center), Novosibirsk - 1.497 million, Yekaterinburg - 1.379 million, Nizhny Novgorod - 1.212 million, Samara - 1.164 million (data as of the beginning of 2016).

Women began to give birth to children on average as early as 24.6 years. The infant mortality rate is high - 6.8 deaths per 1000 (higher in boys), and women in labor themselves could not be saved in 25 cases per 100 thousand births.

So why does Nature no longer need a man after years? Apparently scientists have found the answer to this question. Nature, in order to increase the survival of offspring due to stronger immunity and the introduction of new genes into them (creating higher genetic diversity). After leaving the reproductive age, it seems that the need for men in this regard decreases.

Then let's compare the number and ratio of men and women in Russia and a little earlier for lovers of statistics:

As of June 2013, there were 142,500,482 people in Russia (data for 2015-2016 are at the end of the article). But the ratio of men and women significantly depends on age. The younger the age range, the more men, and vice versa (compare - above). Between the ages of 0 and 14, only children make up 16% of the total population. Of all children, 11,740,877 boys and 11,119,318 girls, the sex ratio is 1.06.

11.5% of the population lived at the age of 15-24, where 8,401,971 males and 8,045,363 females, the ratio is 1.04.
For the age in the range of 25-54 years (45.9% of the population) - men 31,945,797, women 33,417,073 people, the ratio is 0.95.

Pensioner women and men working and in the retirement age range of 55-64 years: 13.5% (8,177,300 men, 11,009,712 women, ratio 0.74).

Well, and, finally, people over the age of 65 (13.1%). Yes, these are mostly women: 5,687,515 men, 12,955,556 women, the sex ratio is 0.44, something does not allow men to live long (data are all for 2013). (Compare, for example,) in Ukraine.

Accordingly, the average age in the country is 38.8 years, for men it is 35.8 years, for women it is 41.8 years.

In total, there were 32,981,000 pensioners by age (at the end of 2011) in the Russian Federation, in addition, 2,588,000 due to disability, and 1,401,000 due to the loss of a breadwinner.

Birth rate: 12.11, death rate -13.97; migration - 1.67 (all per 1000 population).

Urban population - 73%, where they live in Moscow - 10,523,000; St. Petersburg - 4,575,000, 1,397,000 in Novosibirsk; Yekaterinburg - 1,344,000; Nizhny Novgorod - 1,267,000 (2009).

But all this is now. What was it like a hundred years ago? Just amazing was observed - not at all the same as now.

Add the article to your bookmarks to return to it again by clicking the buttons Ctrl+D . Subscribing to notifications about the publication of new articles can be done through the "Subscribe to this site" form in the side column of the page.

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When planning a pregnancy, many future parents begin to worry about the question of how to calculate the sex of the unborn child by the age of the mother as a percentage. Indeed, in fact, some mothers and fathers really want to know in advance who will be born - a boy or a girl! Therefore, here I will present to your attention the exact pregnancy table for 2020. And also I will answer the question, is it possible to calculate the date of conception in such a way that it is a boy or a girl who is born?

In fact, there has long been an ancient Chinese table designed to identify the gender of a future baby and certain signs and signs for determining the sex of a child, which we will consider in this article.

The table below is said to be over 700 years old. She was found in China near the city of Beijing in a crypt.

In order to accurately calculate the gender of the unborn child - a boy or a girl, you need to select the age of the mother and the month in which the conception of the baby is planned in the appropriate column. At the intersection of the vertical column - the month and the corresponding line of the mother's age, you will see the marking "M" or "D", which, respectively, will tell you who will be born to you - a girl or a boy.

For example, if an 18-year-old girl or a 37-year-old woman got pregnant in January, they are more likely to have a girl.

Tables for determining the sex of the child by the blood group of the parents

Keep in mind that this method of determining the sex of a child by blood type in parents cannot be 100% accurate, although many pregnant women use this technique with success.

What is its essence. The sex of the unborn child is determined by correlating the blood type and the Rh factor of the future father and mother. See the special tables below.

Table "Blood type"

Table "Rh factor"

Chinese technique, how to calculate the sex of the unborn baby

You can calculate the gender of the baby using two Japanese tables. Knowing three numbers allows you to get a fairly reliable result.

See:

in what month the mother was born (first digit);
in what month the father was born (second digit);
the month of conception itself (third digit).

The first table is needed to determine the number from 1 to 12. It can be determined by comparing the months of birth of both parents.

In the second table, you should find the number (the result from the first table) and compare it with the month of conception. In this line, sticks (their number) will indicate the chances of the birth of either a boy or a girl. This technique is most relevant for those parents who are at the stage of planning the conception of a baby.

Example: A man was born in April and a woman in June. At the intersection in table No. 1 is the number 10. The month of conception is February. In table No. 2 in column 10 opposite the month of April, we see that the probability of having a girl and a boy is 1 to 1 (one to one), that is, the chances are 50% to 50%.

Table No. 1

Table number 2

We calculate the sex of the child by updating the blood - the table "Boy or Girl"

This technique is very common and free. Its essence is as follows: the blood is renewed at regular intervals, both in the female and in the male. See:

In women, the frequency of blood renewal is once every four years.
In men, blood renewal occurs once every three years.

Keep in mind that sometimes the process of blood renewal may not occur on the date planned by the body (loss of large volumes of blood due to injuries, transfusions, operations, donation). When calculating, consider these circumstances.

Remembering all the tangible blood loss, determine the year in which the future mother and father had blood renewal. For whom this process occurred earlier, that gender will dominate in the formation of the baby's sexual characteristic. For example, if the mother’s blood was renewed later than that of the father, then most likely a girl will be born, and if vice versa, then a boy.

Who will be born according to the age of the blood?

IN first table we find the renewal coefficients of the blood of the father and mother, opposite the age.

Mom's age	Her blood renewal rate	Dad's age	His blood renewal rate
18	2	18	0
19	3	19	1
20	0	20	2
21	1	21	0
22	2	22	1
23	3	23	2
24	0	24	0
25	1	25	1
26	2	26	2
27	3	27	0
28	0	28	1
29	1	29	2
30	2	30	0
31	3	31	1
32	0	32	2
33	1	33	0
34	2	34	1
35	3	35	2
36	0	36	0
37	1	37	1
38	2	38	2
39	3	39	0
40	0	40	1
41	1	41	2
42	2	42	0
43	3	43	1
44	0	44	2
45	1	45	0

In second table you need to find the number at the intersection of the month of birth of the parent and the month of conception of the child.

Now, for each parent, we add the resulting 2 numbers (from tables 1 and 2). Whoever got the number less (“younger blood”), of that gender is most likely to have a baby. Example: mom is 29 years old, dad is 30 years old. Mom was born in June, dad in March. According to the results of the first table, mom=1, dad=0. According to the results of the second table, mom = 10, dad = 1. According to the results of both tables, mom (1+10 = 11), dad (0+1 = 1). "Dad's blood is younger" - a boy is born.

Determination of the sex of the unborn baby according to folk signs

Signs-harbingers of what will be born:
Boy	Girl
If in early pregnancy it is stuffy and hot all the time.	When in this period it is chilly all the time.
The woman has a narrow belly, similar to an oval.	On the contrary, the belly is wide, visible from behind.
The right side of the pregnant woman protrudes.	On the contrary, a more left side protrudes.
The woman became prettier during pregnancy.	Pigmentation spots appear on the face, acne.
Mom's palms are dry.	The palms are soft.
I want meat and salted fish.	I want something sweet.
The pregnant woman sleeps with her head towards the north.	On the contrary, he sleeps with his head to the south.
A woman sleeps more often on her left side.	On the contrary, more often he sleeps on his right side.
In the morning cheerfulness and energy.	Morning sickness.
The left breast is larger.	The right breast is larger.
The expectant mother's nipples are light.	Nipples are dark.

Basically, the gender of the baby is not fundamentally important to future parents. True, in some cases, moms and dads want the birth of a boy or girl. Is it possible to choose the gender of the unborn child in advance?

How to calculate the sex of the baby by the day of ovulation, who will be born - a boy or a girl

It is natural to assume that when there are two children of the same sex in a family, parents want to diversify their offspring. For example, when there are 2 sons, you want the third child to be a girl and, conversely, if you have two daughters, mom and dad may wish they had a son. And, this is where a reasonable question arises - is it possible to control the very process of conception in such a way as to know in advance exactly who will be born - a boy or a girl? How to do it?

Anyway, we will have to put up with the fact that the process of conceiving a boy or a girl is a great mystery of Nature to some extent. However, scientific minds now have some knowledge of the possibilities of controlling the birth of a child.

The birth of a new human life unequivocally presupposes the meeting of the egg and sperm. It is known that the eggs mature in the ovaries, every month one of the cells leaves the ovary and is sent through the fallopian tubes to the uterine cavity, where it is supposed to meet with the sperm. This process of release of the egg from the ovary is called ovulation.

The life expectancy of an egg after ovulation is only one day and when conception does not occur, it dies after 24 hours. Spermatozoa - male sex cells - are able to live up to five days in the uterine cavity. So, conception occurs when a woman is close to a man on the day of ovulation or a few days before it.

So, who will be born - a boy or a girl, will depend on the quality of the sperm that fertilizes the egg. For the birth of a boy, it is necessary that the sperm contains a Y chromosome, for the appearance of a girl - an X chromosome.

You must know:

spermatozoa with a male Y-chromosome move faster, but are less tenacious;
spermatozoa with the X chromosome, despite their slowness, are able to live in the fallopian tube for up to 5 days and, thus, wait for their fusion with the egg!

Therefore, the chances of conceiving a girl are always much greater, which means that sexual intercourse should occur approximately 2-4 days before ovulation!

If you want a boy to be born to you, then calculate the day of ovulation as accurately as possible so that the closeness of a man and a woman takes place on the eve of her onset.

How is ovulation day calculated?

Usually ovulation occurs in the middle of the cycle, but this is not always the case. It is impossible to feel the moment of ovulation, it passes without symptoms. But, you can still calculate this moment using the following methods:

Measure your basal body temperature every day for 3-4 months, write it down in a diary and schedule your BBT.
Use the most accurate inkjet ovulation test.
Get an ultrasound.

To accurately determine the moment of ovulation, a few months before conception, start charting cycles. When the month of conception is chosen, apply another test and undergo an ultrasound.

Signs and fortune-telling on who will be born - a boy or a girl

But, the sex of the child can not always be seen on ultrasound. It happens that a woman, until the very birth, cannot find out who will be born to her - a boy or a girl. That's when folk signs and fortune-telling come to the rescue on what gender the baby will be.

Of course, not all fortune-telling that was popular with our ancestors is suitable for modern women.

I give the simplest folk ways to determine the sex of the unborn baby:

Invite the expectant mother spontaneously to raise and extend her arms forward. If her palms are turned up, a daughter will appear, and if they are turned down, a son will appear.
Take a large key with a long "beard" and put it on the table. Invite the pregnant woman to take the key and give it to someone present. If the expectant mother takes the key by the top - you should wait for the birth of a boy, and if by the "beard" - a daughter will be born.
With the help of fortune-telling with a ring, you can find out who will be - a boy or a girl. Offer the expectant mother to take the “reclining” position, tie a thick thread to the ring and hold the ring by the thread like a pendulum over the woman’s stomach. Gradually, the ring on the thread will begin to swing, if the pendulum moves back and forth or left and right - expect a son, if the ring begins to describe circles above the stomach - there will be a daughter.
When a pregnant woman already has children, watch how the hair grows in the child of a previous pregnancy. If the “pigtail” does not grow in the middle of the neck, but on the side, the child of the opposite sex will be born next.

Ways to plan the sex of the child

Diet

For the birth of a boy, eat fish, meat, mushrooms and potatoes, legumes, chicken protein, apricots and peaches, prunes, rice and semolina.
For the birth of a girl, give preference to eggs, eggplant and beets, carrots and cucumbers, tomatoes and peppers, honey, peanuts and hazelnuts.

The diet must be followed from the beginning of the menstrual cycle until the moment of the alleged conception - for both women and men. After conception, you can eat whatever you want. The success of this method is about 30%.

Calculation by ovulation date

If sexual intercourse occurred less than a day before ovulation - 10 hours before it - a boy will be born. When sexual contact occurred much earlier or a few days after ovulation, a girl will appear.

You remember that Y chromosomes reach the egg a short period of time before ovulation. If they do not reach it, only the X chromosomes remain to replace them.

Frequency of intercourse

X chromosomes are more mobile than Y, but X has a shorter lifespan. Therefore, with frequent sexual intercourse, the probability of conceiving a boy is very high, and with rare sexual intercourse, a girl. The efficiency of the method is 70-80%.

Posture during intercourse

Some believe that the “man behind” or “woman on top” position contributes to the conception of a boy, and the “man on top” position contributes to the appearance of a girl. This method is based on giving more chances to Y or X sperm. As you know, for the conception of a boy, it is necessary that a Y-sperm cell unites with the egg, and for the conception of a girl, an X-sperm cell.

Even and odd years of a woman

The non-traditional doctor Elena Shavrina revealed the dependence of the sex of the child on the age of the expectant mother. In even years of a woman's life, the conception of a girl is more likely in February, April, June and August, October, December; in odd years, respectively, in January, March and May, July, September and November. The appearance of the boy is the opposite.

These are the main ways to plan the sex of the child. The birth of a child of a certain gender can only be guaranteed by the procedure of artificial insemination - IVF, when an embryo of the desired gender is left in the uterus - a boy or a girl.

Who will be born a boy or a girl - table number 3

Watch an interesting video that will help you find out the gender of the future crumbs or even plan it.

How to conceive a boy and a girl

Here are 2 videos that will help you decide on the sex of the baby.

There are many more different tables and methods in order to determine the sex of the unborn baby. But let every parent keep in mind that the main thing in a child is not gender, but his health.